Though not exceptional in 2016, the Perseids should none-the-less provide a very good performance for North American observers.
While maximum activity for the Perseids is expected between 9:00 and 11:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on August 12, recent years’ observations suggest that maximum could occur anytime between 4 a.m. and 6 p.m. In eastern Canada, the latter hours of the night of August 11 to 12 will be closest to maximum.
The Moon will be at first quarter on the 10th, and will set shortly after midnight during the night of August 11 to 12: this will set the stage for excellent observing conditions during the second half of the night until dawn, just as the shower’s radiant, the area in Perseus from where the meteors appear to emanate, climbs higher in the sky.
Taking the time to travel away from light pollution, to the darkest observing site possible, will render the most from these ideal conditions. Under a moderately dark sky, about 25 meteors per hour should be visible — more than 50 per hour at a site completely devoid of light pollution.
The “normal” peak could also be preceded by an initial, short-lived increase in activity: Some specialists predict that Earth will venture near the dust stream liberated by comet Swift-Tuttle during its 1732 passage close to the sun. However, considering the predicted time of this initial peak (between 8 p.m. and midnight on August 11), observers in Europe are most favourably situated to view it.
Should the weather not cooperate during the August 11-12 timeframe, keep in mind that the Perseids are also visible a few nights before, and after, the period of peak activity — but one should expect to see significantly fewer meteors. In fact, you can spot Perseids as early as mid-July, until the third week of August, while the meteor shower remains active.
Let’s hope for clear skies… and get your wish lists ready!